Peak activity is behind us in developed markets as vaccination momentum approaches a natural ceiling and central banks turn towards policy normalization, while in China the regulatory clampdown is weighing on growth. Supply chain constraints persist, energy prices are surging, extending this period of elevated price pressures. Yet, the pandemic is having a diminishing impact on activity, improving incentives should see labor supply returning and consumers still exhibit strength. We believe Global growth will be slower in 2022, but still above-trend.
